Do you know approximately 100 million Job loss in second wave of corona in India. It is not only job loss but regular income of more than 97 percent families has impacted in this period. The second wave of corona has made million jobless and impact on their employment and earning. As per Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) 100 Million Job Loss expected from March to May-21. It was said by the Mahesh Vyas, CEO from CMIE while publishing the research reports. He has also said that the unemployment rate in the country jumped from 8% to 12% percent from April to May 2021.
Let me tell you that unemployment rate in country reached to the highest level during the last year lockdown. It was reached to record 23.5% in May after nationwide lockdown announced in March last year. But this figure was gradually come down when unlock process started in the country. The economy growth was also started coming back on track unless second wave hit the country in Feb 2021. Second wave of corona pandemic was more infectious and dangerous. It has pushed people to lock themselves at home and save life.
What is the challenge for job market after second wave of corona
Industry experts believe that country has passed the peak of second wave in the country. The damage was already done and 100 Million Job Loss may have impacted families. Now government and people has to put effort to bring back economy on track. The Industry has to work and slowly bring resources back to do the required job. This will help in improving economy and bring down the unemployment percentage in the country.
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But there are challenge for job seekers in organise sector. It doesn’t look that permanent job market will back on track soon. There are challenges after 100 Million Job Loss expected in just 2 months this year.
Job Seekers Challenge:
- People lost their job in organise sector may not get job back easily
- Organise sector facing other challenge before opening up regular operation
- Un-organise sector may offer instent job after unlock down but it will not guarantee regular income and employment
- Around 60% of start-up and MSME mat shut their operation before end of this year
- Startups and MSMEs are facing serious cash flow issue and they did not get any support from government so far.
- Post covid19 employers reduced the remuneration of new employees because of less demand and more supply of skilled resource.
- New Labour laws also in favour of employers where they will hire less resource and get more work from existing one.
- There is not much effort and support from government to industry in both the corona wave
There are endless points to mention why job market may not get improved in the country. But main points are highlighted above for your broader understanding.
What is the normal unemployment ratio in the country
The 3-4% unemployment ratio is the normal for the country from a very long time. It has gradually increased in last few years due to current government policy. The Modi government decision of demonetisation, GST, disinvestment and merger of banks has added the unemployment in the country. The government policy of demonetisation and GST had almost killed the MSME sector as per experts. Now 100 Million Job Loss expected in CMIE survey has further increased the pain of job seekers.
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To see the current impact on job market CMIE conducted a nationwide survey on 1.75 lakh families in April. The survey revealed a disturbing trend of earnings in the last one year. In the survey, only 3% of the households said that their income had increased. The 55% families said that their income had decreased since coronavirus and lockdown hit the country. Survey also revealed that 42% peoples family income remain constraints during this period. The survey data seams real and 100 Million Job Loss data has support of many economist in the country.
Why urban job market more impacted during the second wave of pandemic: 100 Million Job Loss
The urban unemployment ratio was most affected and it has reached to 18% by end of May 2021. But the same time reveal that total unemployment in the country remain at 12.15% during this period. The higher urban unemployment has raised many question to researchers. CMIE also tried to identify the reason on unemployment disparity between urban and rural India. While investigation they found some statistics to understand the reason. It has also proved that 100 Million Job Loss could be a reality.
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The main reason for higher unemployment in urban area was the strict lockdown during the second wave peak. Most of the Indian states announced partial lockdown in the main cities of the country starting April. Later they converted it into the strict lockdown when corona cases increased in urban India. Opposite to this workforce participated in farming and other work which was allowed in tier-2, tier-3 cities and rural India. Most of rural India did not had strict lockdown and farming and NAREGA kind of project was continued even during the peak of coronavirus second wave.
What industry experts believe about the unemployment rate in India: 100 Million Job Loss
Industry experts believe that unemployment rate will remain high in urban area for more than 6 months. The main reasons for this is fewer employment opportunities, companies hesitate to hire more employees. The uncertainty of fear of third wave still pushing employers not to ope un jobs at present. Coronavirus spread through the air also increased the risk for employers to hire more workforce in this uncertain period. The 100 Million Job Loss many not get back to Jon again considering thes factors.
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Even the government policy does not allow all resources to the work has created concern for employers not to hire new workforce. The big job industry like tourism, entertainment, hospitality and automobile is totally shut during this period. Even today they are not sure about hiring new resource due to government regulation and people fear. Similarly other sectors also uncertain about adding new resource. This all is making job market scary for job seekers. Hope things will change soon and job market will open again in India. The 100 Million Job Loss is setback for India.